Cities, traffic, and CO2: A multidecadal assessment of trends, drivers, and scaling relationships

Emissions of CO2 from road vehicles were 1.57 billion metric tons in 2012, accounting for 28% of US fossil fuel CO2 emissions, but the spatial distributions of these emissions are highly uncertain. We develop a new emissions inventory, the Database of Road Transportation Emissions (DARTE), which estimates CO2 emitted by US road transport at a resolution of 1 km annually for 1980-2012. DARTE reveals that urban areas are responsible for 80% of on-road emissions growth since 1980 and for 63% of total 2012 emissions. We observe nonlinearities between CO2 emissions and population density at broad spatial/temporal scales, with total on-road CO2 increasing nonlinearly with population density, rapidly up to 1,650 persons per square kilometer and slowly thereafter. Per capita emissions decline as density rises, but at markedly varying rates depending on existing densities. We make use of DARTE's bottom-up construction to highlight the biases associated with the common practice of using population as a linear proxy for disaggregating national- or state-scale emissions. Comparing DARTE with existing downscaled inventories, we find biases of 100% or more in the spatial distribution of urban and rural emissions, largely driven by mismatches between inventory downscaling proxies and the actual spatial patterns of vehicle activity at urban scales. Given cities' dual importance as sources of CO2 and an emerging nexus of climate mitigation initiatives, high-resolution estimates such as DARTE are critical both for accurately quantifying surface carbon fluxes and for verifying the effectiveness of emissions mitigation efforts at urban scales.https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421723112Published versio

Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km(2), nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr(−1)), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses

On the use of ‘cool roofs’ to reduce residential heat exposure disparities in Boston, MA

A “cool roofs” program targeted to the hottest, most vulnerable neighborhoods in Boston has the potential to significantly reduce urban heat islands and heat exposure disparities. Boston’s hottest neighborhoods have the highest proportion of flat black roofs, such as those on our famous triple deckers, which absorb rather than reflect heat. Because of the proportion of this type of roof and housing stock in Boston, a targeted program to whiten or lighten residential rooftops would have a measurable impact on reducing extreme heat, improving thermal comfort, and reducing energy use in summer. A similar program has recently been piloted in Louisville, KY, offering lessons for potential implementation in Boston. While Boston’s recent Heat Resilience Plan (City of Boston 2022) already highlights the need for a cool roof program, the focus is on commercial or city-owned property such as schools, and the intervention calls for grants to nonprofits rather than integration with Boston’s existing residential programs. Boston has an opportunity to invest in a more focused program targeting the hottest, most vulnerable residential blocks.This work was supported by the Boston University URBAN program (NSF DGE 1735087) and the Boston University Initiative on Cities

Variations in Atmospheric CO2CO_2 Mixing Ratios across a Boston, MA Urban to Rural Gradient

Urban areas are directly or indirectly responsible for the majority of anthropogenic $CO_2$ emissions. In this study, we characterize observed atmospheric $CO_2$ mixing ratios and estimated $CO_2$ fluxes at three sites across an urban-to-rural gradient in Boston, MA, USA. $CO_2$ is a well-mixed greenhouse gas, but we found significant differences across this gradient in how, where, and when it was exchanged. Total anthropogenic emissions were estimated from an emissions inventory and ranged from $1.5 to 37.3 mg·C·ha^{-1}·yr^{-1}$ between rural Harvard Forest and urban Boston. Despite this large increase in anthropogenic emissions, the mean annual difference in atmospheric $CO_2$ between sites was approximately 5% $(20.6 \pm 0.4 ppm)$. The influence of vegetation was also visible across the gradient. Green-up occurred near day of year 126, 136, and 141 in Boston, Worcester and Harvard Forest, respectively, highlighting differences in growing season length. In Boston, gross primary production—estimated by scaling productivity by canopy cover—was ~75% lower than at Harvard Forest, yet still constituted a significant local flux of $3.8 mg·C·ha^{-1}·yr^{-1}$. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we must improve our understanding of the space-time variations and underlying drivers of urban carbon fluxes.Engineering and Applied Science

CARBON BALANCE AND VEGETATION DYNAMICS IN AN OLD‐GROWTH AMAZONIAN FOREST

Amazon forests could be globally significant sinks or sources for atmospheric carbon dioxide, but carbon balance of these forests remains poorly quantified. We surveyed 19.75 ha along four 1‐km transects of well‐drained old‐growth upland forest in the Tapajós National Forest near Santarém, Pará, Brazil (2°51′ S, 54°58′ W) in order to assess carbon pool sizes, fluxes, and climatic controls on carbon balance. In 1999 there were, on average, 470 live trees per hectare with diameter at breast height (dbh) ≥10 cm. The mean (and 95% ci) aboveground live biomass was 143.7 ± 5.4 Mg C/ha, with an additional 48.0 ± 5.2 Mg C/ha of coarse woody debris (CWD). The increase of live wood biomass after two years was 1.40 ± 0.62 Mg C·ha−1·yr−1, the net result of growth (3.18 ± 0.20 Mg C·ha−1·yr−1 from mean bole increment of 0.36 cm/yr), recruitment of new trees (0.63 ± 0.09 Mg C·ha−1·yr−1, reflecting a notably high stem recruitment rate of 4.8 ± 0.9%), and mortality (−2.41 ± 0.53 Mg C·ha−1·yr−1 from stem death of 1.7% yr−1). The gain in live wood biomass was exceeded by respiration losses from CWD, resulting in an overall estimated net loss from total aboveground biomass of 1.9 ± 1.0 Mg C·ha−1·yr−1. The presence of large CWD pools, high recruitment rate, and net accumulation of small‐tree biomass, suggest that a period of high mortality preceded the initiation of this study, possibly triggered by the strong El Niño Southern Oscillation events of the 1990s. Transfer of carbon between live and dead biomass pools appears to have led to substantial increases in the pool of CWD, causing the observed net carbon release. The data show that biometric studies of tropical forests neglecting CWD are unlikely to accurately determine carbon balance. Furthermore, the hypothesized sequestration flux from CO2 fertilization (\u3c0.5 Mg C·ha−1·yr−1) would be comparatively small and masked for considerable periods by climate‐driven shifts in forest structure and associated carbon balance in tropical forests

Elevated growth and biomass along temperate forest edges

Fragmentation transforms the environment along forest edges. The prevailing narrative, driven by research in tropical systems, suggests that edge environments increase tree mortality and structural degradation resulting in net decreases in ecosystem productivity. We show that, in contrast to tropical systems, temperate forest edges exhibit increased forest growth and biomass with no change in total mortality relative to the forest interior. We analyze \u3e 48,000 forest inventory plots across the north-eastern US using a quasi- experimental matching design. At forest edges adjacent to anthropogenic land covers, we report increases of 36.3% and 24.1% in forest growth and biomass, respectively. Inclusion of edge impacts increases estimates of forest productivity by up to 23% in agriculture- dominated areas, 15% in the metropolitan coast, and + 2% in the least-fragmented regions. We also quantify forest fragmentation globally, at 30-m resolution, showing that temperate forests contain 52% more edge forest area than tropical forests. Our analyses upend the conventional wisdom of forest edges as less productive than intact forest and call for a reassessment of the conservation value of forest fragments

Urbanization and the carbon cycle: Current capabilities and research outlook from the natural sciences perspective

This paper explores the urban carbon cycle from the natural sciences perspective, identifying key knowledge gaps and priority areas for future research. The combination of large, concentrated carbon fluxes and rapid change makes cities key elements of the carbon cycle and offers the potential for them to serve as “first responders” for climate action. Estimates of urban‐scale carbon fluxes are significantly more uncertain than at larger spatial scales, in part because past studies have mostly avoided local/urban scales where the mix of anthropogenic and natural fluxes is complex and difficult to observationally isolate. To develop effective emission reduction policies, we need to understand emission sources and how they may be changing. Such improved quantification and understanding of underlying processes at the urban scale will not only provide policy‐relevant information and improve the understanding of urban dynamics and future scenarios, but will also translate into better global‐scale anthropogenic flux estimates, and advance our understanding of carbon cycle and climate feedbacks across multiple scales. Understanding the relationship between urbanization and urban carbon flows requires intellectual integration with research communities beyond the natural sciences. Cities can serve as interdisciplinary process laboratories that are sufficiently constrained in both spatial and governance scale to support truly integrated research by the natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering. A thoughtfully crafted science research agenda that is grounded in sustained, dense observations relevant to estimating urban carbon fluxes and their controlling processes and is focused on a statistically significant sample of cities will advance our understanding of the carbon cycle. Key Points Large carbon fluxes and rapid change make cities key carbon cycle elements Cities represent ideal interdisciplinary carbon cycle process laboratories Sustained campaigns in representative cities will transform urban carbon sciencePeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/109579/1/eft244.pd

Seasonal Controls on the Exchange of Carbon and Water in an Amazonian Rain Forest

The long-term resilience of Amazonian forests to climate changes and the fate of their large stores of organic carbon depend on the ecosystem response to climate and weather. This study presents 4 years of eddy covariance data for CO2 and water fluxes in an evergreen, old-growth tropical rain forest examining the forest's response to seasonal variations and to short-term weather anomalies. Photosynthetic efficiency declined late in the wet season, before appreciable leaf litter fall, and increased after new leaf production midway through the dry season. Rates of evapotranspiration were inelastic and did not depend on dry season precipitation. However, ecosystem respiration was inhibited by moisture limitations on heterotrophic respiration during the dry season. The annual carbon balance for this ecosystem was very close to neutral, with mean net loss of 890 ± 220 kg C ha−1 yr−1, and a range of −221 ± 453 (C uptake) to +2677 ± 488 (C loss) kg C ha−1 yr−1 over 4 years. The trend from large net carbon release in 2002 towards net carbon uptake in 2005 implies recovery from prior disturbance. The annual carbon balance was sensitive to weather anomalies, particularly the timing of the dry-to-wet season transition, reflecting modulation of light inputs and respiration processes. Canopy carbon uptake rates were largely controlled by phenology and light with virtually no indication of seasonal water limitation during the 5-month dry season, indicating ample supplies of plant-available-water and ecosystem adaptation for maximum light utilization.Earth and Planetary SciencesEngineering and Applied SciencesOrganismic and Evolutionary Biolog